Raps Headed for High Draft Pick - Great?

As the NBA regular season will soon come mercifully to a close for the Raptors, I can't help but already look toward the draft.  With March Madness in full force it's only natural to fantasize about some of these college superstars suiting up next year in Toronto.  Questions about what's needed and who is the best player available start slowly creeping up as draft day draws closer.  But what should fans expect out of Toronto even with the prospects of getting a top 5 draft pick?  If recent history is any indication, don't expect too much sports fans.

Now I don't want Raptor fans up in arms with me already, just hear me out and make the judgment for yourself when I'm done.  The Raptors haven't been a serious contender since Vince Carter and Allen Iverson went toe-to-toe in 2001.  Just to be clear the Raps didn't draft Vince either, we decided on Antawn Jamison one pick ahead of Vince knowing full well Jamison wanted no part in Toronto.  Anyway, I want to look at the last decade and how the Raptor front office has conducted themselves on draft day. 

The list is a magnificent one put together over the past 10 drafts, but I'm not going to discuss gems like Michael Bradley or Kareem Rush in '01 and '02 because I think drafting a legitimate franchise player in Chris Bosh more then made up for it in 2003 (even though we passed on Dwyane Wade).  But the key to building any solid NBA franchise is having more then one shrewd draft pick within a span of 3 years (I don't want any Knicks or Heat comments here).  We need look no further then 2004 when Raptor management dropped Rafael Araujo on our doorstep.  For those of you who don't know Rafa, it's ok, no one really does because he was a plug.  Just to be sure this pick impaired the Raptor franchise even more, it was sandwiched between Luoul Deng and Andre Igoudala.  So needless to say '04 was a red letter draft year for Raptor fans.

The following draft year brought with it some real promise as the Raptors held 2 picks in the top 16 and fans had high hopes for bringing someone alongside Chris Bosh.  The front office parlayed those 2 picks into Charlie Villanueva and Joey Graham who combined didn't make 1 impact NBA player.  Villanueva showed a spark but I think he frightened fans (if you've seen him you know what I mean) more then he impressed them.  As for Graham, I think him and Rafa now own a convenience store somewhere in southern Ontario.  That draft class saw the Raps pass on players like Channing Frye, Andrew Bynum and David Lee.  Back-to-back years where the Raptors scouting team went on vacation just prior to the draft.

Speaking of vacation, one of them must have been vacationing near Italy because the 2006 draft brought in Andrea Bargnani.  The unfortunate part in all this was the Raps finally got their number 1 overall pick; it turned out to be Bargnani.  Don't get me wrong this guy is turning into one of the better players in the game, but it was a weaker draft class and his evolution was slower then hoped as it took him a couple years before he was able to look at the rim without getting scared.  The struggles in that time period essentially cost the Raptors Chris Bosh as he jumped ship for Miami this past offseason.  Add on the fact that they had no 1st round pick in '07 and they drafted Roy Hibbert, which they immediately traded for Jermaine O'Neal in '08, and it's no wonder their competitive meter has been on low for years.

The jury is still out on DeMar DeRozan, but he looks like he is rounding into a solid NBA player with a chance to be an impact player.  Ed Davis, last years first round pick, hasn't got the minutes this year on a bad Raptor team which puts into doubt the plan surrounding Davis.  Why bother sitting a young kid on a bad team, play him and find out what he is capable of.  This group of Raptors isn't instilling a great amount of confidence in Toronto fans as the blueprint seems hard to read. 

I reiterate my point about having 2 or 3 impact drafts in a short span in order to build a strong NBA team.  You need look no further then maybe the NBA's most consistent team in the last 15 years and one of the NBA's best young teams now: the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls.  The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker in 3 drafts between 1997 and 2001.  The Bulls drafted Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson in 3 back-to-back drafts between 2007 and 2009.  The Spurs have been perennial championship contenders for over a decade, while the Bulls look to be making a similar model.  If you think all these players must have been high picks, think again.  Parker went 28th overall in 2001 and Ginobli was one of the last players drafted at 57th in the 2nd round in 1999.

I am somewhat excited this year as the Raptors are no doubt headed for a high draft pick because this draft class looks very strong.  However, our track record speaks for itself, and it doesn't speak very highly.  Colangelo needs a strong showing this year to peak the interest of Toronto fans or he may be in for another long and arduous year in 2011-2012.