The Madness Begins - 2011 Tourney Favourites and Sleepers

 

Twas the night before St. Patty’s day, when excitement started growing

The field of 64 was almost set, March Madness would soon be showing.

Brackets have been filled out with all the info one could muster,

God please don’t let there be an unknown bracket buster.

Ok, so I’m not much of a poet.  But you have to love my enthusiasm, don’t you?  Regardless, the Madness is officially upon us ladies and gentleman.  With UNC-Asheville and Clemson taking care of business last night, the field of 64 has but two more spots to be filled.  The spotlight is set for the greatest tournament in sports to commence in less than 24 hours. 

The NCAA tournament is about sleepers and favourites.  The favourites are clearly the easier to spot, while every fan thinks they have found this year’s dark horse.  So I’ll weigh in with my two sense and break down this years clear cut favourites as well as several sleepers to keep your eye on. 

We’ll start with the giants of the tourney, the #1 seeds, as there is a reason Ohio St, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh have claimed the top seed in each bracket. 

Ohio St. Buckeyes

Why they can win:  The Buckeyes enter the 2011 tourney as the number 1 overall seed and it seems every bettors pick for the National Championship.  With their body of work you really can’t blame anyone for this choice as at one point they were chasing down the immortal ’75-’76 Indiana Hoosier team for college basketball perfection.  The 24-0 start created quite the buzz around the Buckeyes and only tough road losses in Wisconsin and Purdue kept that from happening.   Freshman Jared Sullinger has looked every bit as dominant as expected averaging better than 17 points and 10 boards per game while leading Ohio St to the Big Ten Championship.  Couple Sullinger’s inside presence with Senior Jon Diebler shooting 50% from beyond the arc and the inside-outside game for the Buckeyes can be overwhelming.  Furthermore, the Buckeye’s discipline is unmatched as they commit the least amount of fouls of any team in the tournament which keeps their best players on the floor and creates a free throw disparity that could lead them to a National Championship.

Why they can’t win:  The road to a National Championship is a long and arduous journey, one that requires a lot of skill, a bit of luck and a complete team effort.  The fact that the Buckeye’s rely so heavily on 5 guys could prove detrimental to a team looking for a deep run in the final four.  Ohio St’s 6^th and 7^th options, Deshaun Thompson and Dallas Lauderdale play only 14 and 16 minutes respectively, while no one else reaches 9 minutes a game.  Can the Buckeyes matchup effectively and consistently with deeper teams like Kansas, who boasts 10 players playing double digit minutes, or North Carolina who has 9 different players with 14 minutes or more a game.  The fact that the Buckeye’s are also an average rebounding team gives reason for worry.  Sullinger is the only Buckeye averaging more then 4.1 rebounds per game.  Given some of the superior rebounding in their own region, North Carolina at number 1 in the country and Kentucky at 31, the Buckeyes have reason to worry.  If Sullinger gets into foul trouble early and Ohio St hits a cold spell from outside, the Buckeyes chances for a National Championship will seriously diminish.

Kansas Jayhawks

Why they can win:  The Kansas Jayhawks, Big 12 powerhouse and second #1 seed in the country.  This team knows how to fill the nets early and fill them often.  The Jayhawks, led by the Morris twins and senior guard Brady Morningstar rank in the top 5 in the country in shooting, assists and points per game.  This team deserved every bit of the number 1 seed they were given and besides the hiccup at home to conference rival Texas and on the road to long time rival Kansas St, the Jayhawks were all but perfect in there assault of the Big 12 Crown.  The fact that this team runs 10 different players in double digit minutes proves how deep and talented they are and allows them to wear down their opponents.  There is no time to sleep on Kansas because they can turn a small lead into a large blowout before half, with or without their starters on the floor. 

Why they can’t win:  How can a team that is fairly stingy defensively, among the best in the country offensively, can rebound the ball with the best of them and is one of the deepest teams in all college lose?  Focus.  Kansas may have the two worst losses of any number 1 seed in the tourney this year (maybe except for Duke’s loss to St John at Madison Square Garden).  Their complete meltdown at home to Texas broke a 69 game home winning streak where Kansas blew a 15 point lead in the 2^nd half and ended up getting embarrassed by 11 points on their home floor.  Three weeks later the Jayhawks walked into Kansas St
and were blown out by the Wildcats in a game where Kansas never showed up.  Those kind of hiccups don’t cut it in the tourney where every game is played like it’s your last.  Also, Kansas has been less than stellar from the free throw line which down the stretch against good teams could become a problem.  Look for Kansas’ intensity and focus to stay high or the Jayhawks won’t be cutting down any nets in April.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Why they can win:  So you want to play in the Big East eh?  This conference has dominated college basketball all year and broke a record by having a whopping 11 teams in this years NCAA tournament.  Pittsburgh, our third number 1 seed, topped the Big East with a 15-3 record and probably would have claimed the Big East title if it were not for Kemba Walker and the ludicrous 5 games in 5 days show that UCONN put on.  Pitt features a fantastic inside-outside game with Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wannamaker leading the way and Gary McGhee and Nasir Robinson creating space down low.  With McGhee and Robinson inside Pitt is ranked 8^th in the country in rebounding and is top 5 in the tourney on the offensive glass.  The Panthers, minus an early season loss to Tennessee, lost all 4 of their other games by a combined 11 points.  What that tells you is they are in every game and with their physical style it makes it tough to compete with them for 40 minutes. 

Why they can’t win:  Well I think we need to look no further then UCONN’s display in the Big East tournament to figure out the game plan against Pitt.  Run, run, run, run and rebound the ball.  Easier said then done I guess eh?  Despite shooting 55% against the Huskies, Pitt lost on a buzzer beater by Kemba Walker.  The fact that Walker was even in that position was phenomenal to me as I watched this game.  Pitt was dominant early, but once McGhee ran into foul trouble and UCONN was able to get out in transition and run, the kinks in the armour began to show.  Pitt wants to play a physical, half-court game, where they can beat you up and wear you down.  Teams that are good in transition and can match Pitt on the boards have a chance to create space and exploit the Panthers.  Look for Pittsburgh to slow the game down because in a track meet this team seems like they may be a leg slower then some. 

Duke Blue Devils

Why they can win: The Blue Devils are back and looking to be the first team to win back-to-back National Titles since Florida in ‘06-’07.  Battle tested, Duke returns seniors Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, both integral parts of their championship team last year.  This team loves to shoot the ball.  Shooting around 47% for the year and 38% from beyond the arc, Duke is always a threat to put up big numbers offensively.  They rebound well, they pass well, they don’t turn the ball over, they function as a unit well, oh and they have one of the greatest coaches of all time in Mike Krzyzewski.  On top of all that, Duke is money from the free throw line.  Anyone who has ever watched this tournament can figure out how important free throw shooting is and Duke does it very well.  This team knows what it takes to win and they execute that game plan on a regular basis.  

Why they can’t win:  Kyrie Irving?  The analysts and most fans had this back-to-back National Championship year all but sewn up for Duke at the beginning of the year.  I mean my God, they have three guys averaging 17 points or better and Seth Curry is coming off your bench.  Need I say more?  Then somebody stomped, forgive me if you see an analogy here, all over their hopes and dreams.  Kyrie Irving, the freshman phenom, hurt his toe (yes I said his toe) and has been out since December.  These guys got a 1 seed without him, imagine what they would be like with him.  There are rumblings throughout college hoops that Irving may be seen sometime throughout this tourney, but I’m not holding my breath.  I watched North Carolina beat them once (should have been twice) and the debacle to St Johns.  I also watched the eggs they laid in Florida St and Virginia Tech because they hit a cold patch from outside.  If this team can’t shoot with precision, they aren’t beating a great team.  Without Irving, Duke seems to be just that much short of defending their National Title.

March Madness is really about thrills, buzzer beaters and upsets which provide these heart stopping moments that live on forever in college basketball lore (see George Mason’s ascent to the elite eight in 2006 and their overtime win over then number 1 UCONN).  So after looking at the elite class of college basketball, let’s look at four teams that could have a chance at making some noise from lower down on the totem pole. 

Belmont Bruins (#13 seed)

Yes, the great and powerful Bruins from Belmont, seems like an oxymoron in and of itself, I realize that.  However, this is the point in picking a sleeper, a team that is a much lower seed able to compete with its more talented adversary.  The Belmont Bruins look to be in a perfect position for this theme. 

The Bruins come into the tourney as 1 of only 7 teams to win 30 or more games this year.  Granted that the competition they face may not be up to par with some schedules, but winning is winning, and these guys can win basketball games.  The Bruins come in ranked 11^th nationally in scoring with 80 plus points per game as well as 1^st in three pointers made per game, going up against an offensively challenged Wisconsin team (If anyone saw that Penn St – Wisconsin game it nearly made me sick).  Belmont has racked up 12 straight wins and is entering the tourney with more confidence then ever after winning the Atlantic Sun Conference almost effortlessly.  Confidence is something that cannot be taught.  Wisconsin is coming in after getting blown out by
Ohio St and beaten 36-33 by Penn St.  That will not cut it against Belmont as good shooters will find a way to score.

Neither team rebounds the ball incredibly well, but the Bruins do have the edge which should allow them ever more room for scoring.  If they can keep Wisconsin off the line, where the Badgers are deadly, and can ride their confidence and their shooting, then Belmont has a chance to pull the upset.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies (#13 seed)

What do West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio St all have in common?  Oakland played them in their non-conference schedule.  That schedule is ranked as the toughest non-conference schedule of any team in the tournament, so if anyone is thinking the Golden Grizzlies haven’t played anyone this year they would be wrong.  That also included a win at Tennessee, a 1 point loss to Michigan St and a game they were winning at Illinois at half. 

Now that we have determined their credibility for being here, how do they have a chance to beat Texas?  Oakland is going to pour in the points for 40 straight minutes, that’s how.  They score the most points of any team in the tournament at more than 85 per game.  They are  2^nd nationally behind only Kansas in field goal percentage and shoot almost 8% better than Texas from the free throw line.  The Longhorns are going to get a steady dose of 6’11 Keith Benson who averages 18 points and 10 plus boards a game.  That ability to rebound the ball may end up being an x-factor in this game as Texas has no one bigger than 6’8.  The Longhorns come in 5^th in the country on the glass, but with a guy like Benson down low rebounds become hard to come by. 

This game looks like it’s going to be a good old fashioned shootout as Oakland also gives up the most points of any team in the tournament.  If Benson is able to dominate the glass and Oakland keeps shooting at that percentage, we may see a quick Texas exit.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (#11 seed)

I know it’s tough to call the Zags a sleeper because we consistently see them in the tourney and making some noise.  However, at an 11 seed I am still giving them this title, sue me.  There resume speaks for itself, they beat Xavier and Marquette in non-conference play as well as had a 4 point loss in Notre Dame and a 3 point loss to San Diego St.  Throw in beating St Mary’s twice and winning the WCC and I think it’s safe to say the Zags belong.

This matchup seems to be a weird one for me as I look at the numbers and want to flip the seeds around.  The Bulldogs score more, give up less, rebound better, assist better, shoot the three at a higher percentage and shoot overall at a higher percentage.  To be honest the free throws are fairly close as well so we won’t give St Johns full credit there either.  However, people are still setting St Johns up for a long and deep tournament run, why?  Outside of Madison Square Gardens the Red Storm have looked fairly ordinary.  Even in the Gardens it took a botched last second call to seal a win against an average Rutgers team.  Compound this with the fact that they lost leading rebounder DJ Kennedy for the season and Gonzaga seems to have all the makings of pulling the upset here.

The Zags move the ball around well and are comfortable with multiple scoring options.  If they are able to contain Dwight Hardy and St Johns can’t channel Madison Square then I like the Zags to come away with a victory here.  If they are able to do that they probably have BYU waiting second round and without Brandon Davies that team is not nearly as efficient.  Gonzaga in the Sweet 16?

Old Dominion Monarchs (#9 seed)

This is our highest seeded sleeper as Old Dominion comes in as a 9 seed.  The reason I put them in is because I believe they matchup better with their inevitable second round opponent, Pittsburgh.  Wins against George Mason, Clemson and Xavier highlighted a decent non-conference schedule and the monarchs finished off the Colonial with a win over VCU furthering their tournament resume.

The Monarchs stingy defense and superior rebounding allow them to be in just about every game they play.  They impress no one with their offensive abilities but will make other teams lives miserable on the defensive end.  Senior Frank Hassel leads the way averaging 15 points and almost 10 boards a game and is the poster boy for Old Dominion basketball, down and dirty.  The Butler game could get ugly if Butler is unable to shoot the 3 with consistency because Butler’s interior defense is among the worst in the country.  Also, Butler is much more inferior on the glass and especially on the offensive glass getting outrebounded by an average of 5 per game on the offensive glass.

Old Dominion relies on rebounding and defense to win; Butler relies on shooting the 3 to win.  Maybe the two most differing styles in the tourney coming together as 8 and 9 seeds.  If Butler isn’t shooting the ball well, look for Old Dominion to dominate the glass and the scoreboard which would setup a very intriguing matchup between Pittsburgh featuring two physical and highly proficient rebounding teams.

Well, there you have it, 4 giants and 4 potential giant killers.  The Madness starts tomorrow everyone; I hope you’re ready for it.