Well here we are, just 2 more days until the boys of summer step back onto the field (or turf) for another long season of baseball. It seems like just yesterday that pitchers and catchers were reporting to spring training and workouts were starting down south. But the workouts are over now and the rosters are set, baseball is ready to begin! Each team comes in with a clean slate, plenty of enthusiasm and the drive to win. With every new season, however, comes a series of questions and unknowns. So what better way to kick-off the regular season then to take a look at some of the pressing questions plaguing the upcoming Blue Jays season? Here is a look at how the 2011 Jays are shaping up as they begin their assault on the American League East.
Is the starting rotation strong enough to contend in the AL East?
How do you win baseball games? Well without giving a smartass answer like 'you score more runs than the other team', most baseball enthusiasts would maintain pitching and defense. Look at the reigning World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants, who led all of baseball in era, had the most team strikeouts and the lowest opponent's batting average in 2010. This is from a team that finished middle to bottom of the league in most major offensive categories. Pitching is ultimately the key to a strong regular season and a deep run into October.
So how does the Jays staff look heading into 2011? The trade sending last years ace Shaun Marcum to the Milwaukee Brewers back in December shocked many Jays fans, especially when discussions with coveted ace Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals fizzled out and he ended up going to Milwaukee as well. But the real question fans asked was where does that leave the Jays this season? Well, it actually puts them in a very precarious position with the wealth of young pitching talent the Jays have been stockpiling.
Let's be honest, Shaun Marcum is not a prototypical ace and never will be. Here's a guy who had tommy john surgery just 2 years ago and it's possible his stock may never be higher then it is right now. Lefty Ricky Romero (the teams opening day starter) and righty Brandon Morrow proved last year how affective they could be winning a combined 24 games despite Morrow being shut down early. Also, the ceiling on how much better they can be seems to be much higher with both of them then it was with Marcum. Morrow is dealing with a slight forearm strain that will cause him to miss his first start, but it seems like it's more precautionary than anything else. Following Romero and Morrow is the third cornerstone of the starting rotation in Brett Cecil. The team leader in wins last year, Cecil went 15 - 7 and showed signs of brilliance throughout the season finishing 8 - 2 in the last 3 months of the year. Although Cecil has been struggling a little with his velocity this spring, the Jays don't seem overly concerned. The fact that these 3 are all no older then 26 years of age brings great optimism and enthusiasm to this young Jays staff.
The most intriguing part of this years starting rotation may be the battle for the number 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Kyle Drabek, the key piece in the Roy Halladay trade, Jesse Litsch and Jo-Jo Reyes, acquired in the Alex Gonzalez deal from Atlanta last year, have all had strong springs in making their cases for a spot in the rotation. With Morrow's injury, all 3 are going to get at least one start in the first week of the season to further cement their place. It looks as though Drabek, son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, may be the frontrunner to win a spot as the hype surrounding him has been intense in the last year or so and he has had a strong spring. Litsch looked to have the 5th spot all but sealed before Reyes' emergence this spring. Regardless who wins the job, the Jays starting rotation will have a wealth of young talent. The Jays staff has all the makings for greatness, but it remains to be seen if their youth and inexperience will overcome their talent and enthusiasm in an overly competitive AL East division. Either way, this staff should be fun and exciting to watch this year.
Is the Jays bullpen their true achilles heel this year?
The losses of lefty Scott Downs and closer Kevin Gregg in the offseason will undoubtedly have an impact on the Jays bullpen. Downs spent 6 seasons in Toronto and was considered mr. reliable year in and year out. He could get out lefties or righties, could be a long man and could close when asked. Gregg, even though he butted heads with manager Cito Gaston on more than one occcasion, has to be seen as a key loss as he racked up 37 saves last year, good enough for top ten in baseball. Yet, the Jays did try and compensate for these losses by going out and signing a trio of veteran closers in Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch. All three veterans have experience closing and all have experience in the post-season. Francisco had the inside track on this years closing job in Toronto, but a shoulder injury has slowed him down. Coupled with the fact that Dotel has been hampered by a hamstring injury and Rauch becomes the closer to start the season. Nice to have some depth there eh?
Alongside Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor, the Jays biggest question mark after their closer is the left side of the bullpen. The loss of Downs leaves a gaping hole for new manager John Farrell and some decisions to be made. Early signs are pointing to David Purcey having locked a job as a lefty out of the pen, but anyone with any sense knows one lefty in the bullpen isn't enough. It looks as though Marc Rzepczynski is the next guy in line to take this role since his removal from the starting role competition. However, if Reyes loses the job in the rotation the Jays are going to have some major decisions. They don't have room to carry all three lefties in their bullpen and they can't send Reyes down, so you may see Rzepczynski secretly lobbying against righty Jesse Litsch in the starting rotation battle. At any rate, the Jays bullpen seems to have the most questions surrounding it. Their is a good mix of veteran leadership and young arms, but injuries and a lack of clear roles may turn the 7th, 8th and 9th innings into adventures in Blue Jay land this season.
Can Bautista and Co. overcome significant offseason departures?
John Buck, Lyle Overbay and yes, Vernon Wells will all be wearing something other then a Blue Jays uniform this season. Just to put it into perspective, that is 71 home runs, 221 rbi and whole whack of veteran leadership gone overnight. In their place? Rajai Davis, JP Arencibia and Juan Rivera who totalled 22 home runs and 106 rbi last season. Now before you go get your nuts in a knot, let's break this down a second. Arencibia played only 11 games in the big leagues last year and Rajai Davis is a leadoff hitter who stole 50 bases last year, so the style of play and youth factor are slightly different. Nevertheless, is a team that relied almost exclusively on the long ball going to be able to contend without three major power sources?
The easy answer to that would be no, they are not strong enough anymore. But that wouldn't leave room for much optimism not would it? The Jays will have a slightly different approach in 2011, especially with the likes of Davis and Yunel Escobar at the top of their lineup. The model Tampa Bay has made over the past few years justifies the argument that speed and taking the extra base is crucial to winning ball games at this level. Now, don't get me wrong, the Jays still have the reigning home run champ Jose Bautista, fresh off signing his new 5 year 65 million dollar contract. It looks as though Bautista will now be moved back to right field, where he is most comfortable, to start the season rather than third base. This leaves Edwin Encarnacion to patrol third base and relegates Juan Rivera to the DH position. As well, both Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are coming off frustrating 2010 seasons where they saw their offensive production take a hit. Look for both Hill and Lind to fill some of the void left by the departures of Buck, Overbay and Wells as they should both have bounce back seasons.
Finally, with the top and middle of the linuep rounding into form, the big questions still remain in the bottom half. Is Travis Snider finally ready to be a mainstay at the big league level and provide the left-handed power and consistency needed to protect Hill and Lind? Is JP Arencibia ready to fill the void left by John Buck and chip in offensively while handling a young pitching staff? I think Arencibia and Snider will be vital to the Jays success this year if both are able make positive strides to becoming legitimate big league ballplayers.
The Blue Jays 2011 season is filled with plenty of optimism because of a youth movement that is beginning to turn the corner. Coming off an impressive 85 win season in 2010, Jays fans have every reason to be pumped for 2011. The Skydome - er Rogers Center - is sold out for Friday's opener against Minnesota which is a good sign as this city needs a team to get excited about. The boys of summer have officially returned, let's welcome them back in style Toronto and look forward to a great summer of baseball.
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