Thursday, March 31, 2011

National League Preview - To Pitch, Or Not To Pitch

The Major League Baseball season is officially underway and all the baseball fanatics, including myself, are gathered in unison breathing a sigh of relief that spring training is through.  The month of March is an agonizing one for most fans as they gear up for April (or March 31st in this case) and the start of games that count.  Continuing on from yesterday's blog, today I want to preview the National League divisions and what to look for during the next 6 months of ball.  The overarching theme in the National League is definitely pitching, pitching and more pitching as some of baseball's best staffs reside in the NL.  Here is my pre-season breakdown of the 2011 National League.

National League East

Well here we are again looking at the East division and once again we must talk about one powerhouse that seems to have set themselves above the rest and goes nicely with our theme of pitching dominating the NL.  No, it's not the Boston Red Sox anymore (we've moved to the NL if you weren't following), but the Philadelphia Phillies have created possibly the biggest buzz in the offseason by creating a juggernaut starting rotation.  The surprise addition of Cliff Lee, right from under the nose of the Yankees I might add, has given the Phillies a foursome for the books.  Lee re-joins the Phillies alongside future hall of famers Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt, as well as 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels.  The Phils come in as heavy favourites to win the National League title and analysts have them virtually on par with the Red Sox as favourites to win the World Series.  However, the loss of Jayson Werth and the uncertainty of Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Brad Lidge's health puts the Phillies in a precarious position offensively and in the bullpen.  I believe their rotation should be enough to get them into the post-season, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is a closer race then people think.

In contrast to the Phillies loaded pitching staff, the Atlanta Braves have quietly built an excellent foundation of power and speed in their lineup.  The main competition the Phillies should have this year will come out of Atlanta where the Braves come off a 91 win campaign and a Wild Card berth last year.  This team went out and added Dan Uggla, the premier power hitting second baseman in baseball, in the offseason to compliment Brain McCann, Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward.  With veterans Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson alongside young phenom Tommy Hunter, the Braves should push the Phillies all year and once again fight for the Wild Card at the very least.  Regardless who wins this division, I think their will be meaningful games played in late September to determine the NL East crown.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies
Sleeper: Atlanta Braves (if the Phillies offence falters, the Braves could seize the moment)

National League Central

The two-headed monster developing in the NL central looks like it may turn out to be the best race in the National League (and sorry Cubs fans you're still not part of this conversation).  With the season ending injury to Adam Wainwright, the St Louis Cardinals have been removed from legitimate NL central contention discussions.  Consequently, the defending central champion Cincinnati Reds and the up and coming Milwaukee Brewers should battle for first in the central division.

The Reds are a fairly self-explanatory bunch; they love to hit.  Cincinnati once again looks to have put together a makeshift, yet solid, starting rotation which is just required to not lose games for the Reds.  No one is expecting the likes of Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo or even wild man Edinson Volquez to steal many games for them.  Keep the games close and leave the rest up to reigning MVP (and Canadian) Joey Votto and company to put wins on the board.  If they are able to do that then the Reds have a shot at defending their NL central title. 

The other head on this monster features yet another potent offensive attack in Milwaukee.  Led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, the Brewers should be able to match the offensive output of the Reds and are able to score runs in bunches.  The difference?  You guessed it, pitching.  Offseason acquisitions Shaun Marcum and Zach Greinke (after he recovers from his stupidity at trying to become a pro basketball player), should compliment Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf exceptionally well giving the Brewers an excellent starting rotation.  The back end of the bullpen looks to be solid as well as John Axford should continue to emerge as one of the better closers in baseball.  The Brewers and their fans have reason to be optimistic in 2011 as expectations coming in are extremely high.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Sleeper: Cincinnati Reds (like the Rangers they aren't quite a sleeper, but if the Brewers rotation does not pan out as planned then the Reds will repeat in the central)

National League West

The San Francisco Giants brought World Series glory back to the NL West for the first time since Luis Gonzalez broke the Yankees hearts and the Arizona Diamonbacks tasted victory in 2001.  The Giants rode their plethora of young phenoms on the mound right through October and got a boost from a wiley veteran in the World Series.  There is no reason to believe there will be any drop-off in 2011 coming out of San Fran.  The Giants return their whole starting rotation, this time with the invaluable experience of a playoff run and World Series title added to their resume.  Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain, alongside ace Tim Lincecum, will allow the Giants to compete with anyone in the majors.  With Buster Posey having a full season to produce in 2011, Pablo Sandoval coming into the season in the best shape of his life and the veteran presence of Miguel Tejada now at shortstop, the Giants look poised to repeat in the NL west.

The NL west looks like it may shape up to be the weakest division in the National League this season as the Diamonbacks, Padres and Dodgers all look to be a level below competitive.  However, if there is someone in the west that will give the Giants a scare it is the Colorado Rockies.  The Rockies, though, have a few glaring question marks that need to be addressed before we call them a contender.  Their starting rotation is fairly suspect and could become even more so if Ubaldo Jiminez doesn't continue his CY Young contending form from last season.  Also, the aging Todd Helton and injury prone Troy Tulowitzki need to have strong seasons at the plate and stay healthy if the Rockies hope to return to the post-season for the first time since 2009.

Pick: San Francisco Giants
Sleeper: Colorado Rockies (Giants are just too strong, but the Rockies may contend for the Wild Card)


Well there you have it, the National League wrapped up in a tight little package.  As I said yesterday, pre-season predictions are tough because of the length and unpredictability of the baseball season, but they provide a nice framework in which to start off with.  As for the Wild Card, I can see the Braves repeating as Wild Card winners with a cool 95 plus wins and making some noise in the playoffs as well.  Now there's only one thing left to do: Let's Play Ball!

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

American League Preview - Optimism and Realism Collide

Less than 24 hours now until the first pitch is thrown in the 2011 MLB season.  As I said in my blog yesterday, every team comes in tied for first with a clean slate and plenty of room for optimism.  But if we could all be completely realistic here, cockeyed optimism doesn't win ball games and neither does a great attitude.  Mind you, these are things every good ball team encompasses, but without the actual pieces of the puzzle the picture on the box doesn't help you build the damn thing now does it.  So here's a breakdown of what to expect in the American League this season.

American League East

Ah the great and powerful AL East.  Maybe the greatest running division in sports over the past decade or so.  The East has won 7 of the past 15 World Series and had a team play in 10 of those 15, that's a 66% chance that someone from the AL East will at least be seen in the October classic.  It was the only division in baseball last year to boast 4 different teams with a .500 record or better and continues to dominate headlines with big market teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.  So coming into 2011, there is no great surprise that once again the AL East is seen as a powerhouse division. 

It is funny, however, that in such a powerful division one team can be put head and shoulders above the others.  Painfully saying this as a die hard Blue Jays fan, but the aforementioned Boston Red Sox have moulded themselves into the class of baseball in 2011.  With no disrespect to the Halladay led Phillies, this Red Sox team, barring major injury, looks unstoppable.  Signing the most coveted free agent player last year in Carl Crawford and trading for an MVP candidate in Adrian Gonzalez, without losing much I might add, has created a 'monster' (pardon the pun) in Fenway this year.  Add to that a rotation headed up by John Lester, Josh Beckett  and John Lackey, a bullpen boasting 3 legitimate closing options in Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks, and the Red Sox just might regain their '07 and '04 World Series form.  Their main source of competition seems to be coming from an aging Yankee team with a weaker starting rotation, a rising Jays team that doesn't look like they are quite there yet and a Rays team which will be weakened by significant offseason departures in their starting rotation and bullpen. 

Pick: Boston Red Sox
Sleeper: Boston Red Sox (that's how good they are)

American League Central

The central may be the most competitive division in the American League, even if it isn't the strongest.  The race for the central crown may once again come down to the last day of the season, or dare we say, another one game playoff!  The Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers all come into opening day with aspirations of October baseball, and each is being a realist when they do so (sorry Cleveland and Kansas City, maybe next year).  But you couldn't get three more different teams in the mix. 

The Twins have been the model of consistency in the central for a decade now, posting a record above .500 in 9 of those 10 seasons and winning the central 6 times.  It is impossible to talk about winning the central without at least giving the Twins their due.  But this season seems riddled with questions and concerns as the Twinkies emerge from spring training and head north to Minneapolis.  Health becomes a huge issue as key pieces like Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan both are coming off seasons where they played only 81 games combined, as well as Francisco Liriano's arm feels like a constant time bomb just waiting to go off.  Will Carl Pavano be able to duplicate his 17 win season of last year after winning only 23 games in the previous 4 seasons?  If the Twins can stay healthy and produce this year they have a great chance at the central, but that is asking a lot.

The White Sox and Tigers both made headlining news in the offseason when they went out and picked up Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez.  The White Sox possess one of the more formidable middle of the orders in the AL with the likes of Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios.  Their rotation seems to be coming together as John Danks continues to impress people while Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd come in with high expectations.  As well, Hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton looks poised to seize the closers job after the departure of Bobby Jenks. 

The Tigers, meanwhile, picked up Victor Martinez in the offseason to give Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez another power bat in the middle of their order.  If Austin Jackson continues to turn heads in center field and at the top of the order and Ryan Raburn is able to be a steady force in left then the Tigers bats could be a force.  Furthermore, Justin Verlander heads up a younger and talented rotation alongside Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello that can give this team some quality innnings and get this team into the later innings for Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde.  The Tigers had the 2nd best home record in the AL last year and if they are able to play some quality ball on the road this year they could take the central title.

Pick: Detroit Tigers
Sleeper: Minnesota Twins (they already know how to win, just a question of health and production)

American League West

The Texas Rangers were on the brink of baseball glory last season, then they met Edgar Renteria.  The Rangers were the class of the AL West last year winning the division a month before the end of the season.  The loss of Cliff Lee is going to prove to be huge and the injury to Tommy Hunter, sidelining him for up to 6 weeks, further questions their starting rotation.  We know they can still hit but the void left by Vladdy Guerrero should be felt even with the addition of Adrian Beltre at third.  Michael Young isn't happy with his role as DH this year which should cause some added turmoil in Arlington.  Look for a slight drop-off in Texas, just enough to push them out of the playoff picture. 

Meanwhile old mr. moneyball, Billy Beane, may be putting together another team primed for the playoffs using nickels, dimes and a quarter or two.  Beane's A's had the best ERA in the AL last year and there is no reason to think that can't continue.  Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden all had ERA's 3.50 or lower last year and are still continuing to develop.  The quiet additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham may give this team just enough run support to make Beane once again look like a genius.  Look for the Athletics to turn some heads this year and come out as the surprise team in the AL West.

Pick: Oakland Athletics
Sleeper: Texas Rangers (not really a sleeper but if Oakland falters the Rangers are clearly the next best)


So that's how I see the American League shaping up this season.  Let's be honest though, pre-season predictions are about as useless as David Ortiz's glove, but fun to see nonetheless.  As for the Wild Card, if all the division winners go as planned I can see the Rangers and Yankees fighting for the final playoff spot in the AL with the Yankees slightly edging them out.  Stay tuned for the National League division breakdowns coming soon.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

O Canada - The Boys of Summer are Back in Town

Well here we are, just 2 more days until the boys of summer step back onto the field (or turf) for another long season of baseball.  It seems like just yesterday that pitchers and catchers were reporting to spring training and workouts were starting down south.  But the workouts are over now and the rosters are set, baseball is ready to begin!  Each team comes in with a clean slate, plenty of enthusiasm and the drive to win.  With every new season, however, comes a series of questions and unknowns.  So what better way to kick-off the regular season then to take a look at some of the pressing questions plaguing the upcoming Blue Jays season?  Here is a look at how the 2011 Jays are shaping up as they begin their assault on the American League East.

Is the starting rotation strong enough to contend in the AL East?

How do you win baseball games?  Well without giving a smartass answer like 'you score more runs than the other team', most baseball enthusiasts would maintain pitching and defense.  Look at the reigning World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants, who led all of baseball in era, had the most team strikeouts and the lowest opponent's batting average in 2010.  This is from a team that finished middle to bottom of the league in most major offensive categories.  Pitching is ultimately the key to a strong regular season and a deep run into October.

So how does the Jays staff look heading into 2011?  The trade sending last years ace Shaun Marcum to the Milwaukee Brewers back in December shocked many Jays fans, especially when discussions with coveted ace Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals fizzled out and he ended up going to Milwaukee as well.  But the real question fans asked was where does that leave the Jays this season?  Well, it actually puts them in a very precarious position with the wealth of young pitching talent the Jays have been stockpiling. 

Let's be honest, Shaun Marcum is not a prototypical ace and never will be.  Here's a guy who had tommy john surgery just 2 years ago and it's possible his stock may never be higher then it is right now.  Lefty Ricky Romero (the teams opening day starter) and righty Brandon Morrow proved last year how affective they could be winning a combined 24 games despite Morrow being shut down early.  Also, the ceiling on how much better they can be seems to be much higher with both of them then it was with Marcum.  Morrow is dealing with a slight forearm strain that will cause him to miss his first start, but it seems like it's more precautionary than anything else.  Following Romero and Morrow is the third cornerstone of the starting rotation in Brett Cecil.  The team leader in wins last year, Cecil went 15 - 7 and showed signs of brilliance throughout the season finishing 8 - 2 in the last 3 months of the year.  Although Cecil has been struggling a little with his velocity this spring, the Jays don't seem overly concerned.  The fact that these 3 are all no older then 26 years of age brings great optimism and enthusiasm to this young Jays staff.

The most intriguing part of this years starting rotation may be the battle for the number 4 and 5 spots in the rotation.  Kyle Drabek, the key piece in the Roy Halladay trade, Jesse Litsch and Jo-Jo Reyes, acquired in the Alex Gonzalez deal from Atlanta last year, have all had strong springs in making their cases for a spot in the rotation.  With Morrow's injury, all 3 are going to get at least one start in the first week of the season to further cement their place.  It looks as though Drabek, son of former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, may be the frontrunner to win a spot as the hype surrounding him has been intense in the last year or so and he has had a strong spring.  Litsch looked to have the 5th spot all but sealed before Reyes' emergence this spring.  Regardless who wins the job, the Jays starting rotation will have a wealth of young talent.  The Jays staff has all the makings for greatness, but it remains to be seen if their youth and inexperience will overcome their talent and enthusiasm in an overly competitive AL East division.  Either way, this staff should be fun and exciting to watch this year.

Is the Jays bullpen their true achilles heel this year?

The losses of lefty Scott Downs and closer Kevin Gregg in the offseason will undoubtedly have an impact on the Jays bullpen.  Downs spent 6 seasons in Toronto and was considered mr. reliable year in and year out.  He could get out lefties or righties, could be a long man and could close when asked.  Gregg, even though he butted heads with manager Cito Gaston on more than one occcasion, has to be seen as a key loss as he racked up 37 saves last year, good enough for top ten in baseball.  Yet, the Jays did try and compensate for these losses by going out and signing a trio of veteran  closers in Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.  All three veterans have experience closing and all have experience in the post-season.  Francisco had the inside track on this years closing job in Toronto, but a shoulder injury has slowed him down.  Coupled with the fact that Dotel has been hampered by a hamstring injury and Rauch becomes the closer to start the season.  Nice to have some depth there eh?

Alongside Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor, the Jays biggest question mark after their closer is the left side of the bullpen.  The loss of Downs leaves a gaping hole for new manager John Farrell and some decisions to be made.  Early signs are pointing to David Purcey having locked a job as a lefty out of the pen, but anyone with any sense knows one lefty in the bullpen isn't enough.  It looks as though Marc Rzepczynski is the next guy in line to take this role since his removal from the starting role competition.  However, if Reyes loses the job in the rotation the Jays are going to have some major decisions.  They don't have room to carry all three lefties in their bullpen and they can't send Reyes down, so you may see Rzepczynski secretly lobbying against righty Jesse Litsch in the starting rotation battle.  At any rate, the Jays bullpen seems to have the most questions surrounding it.  Their is a good mix of veteran leadership and young arms, but injuries and a lack of clear roles may turn the 7th, 8th and 9th innings into adventures in Blue Jay land this season.

Can Bautista and Co. overcome significant offseason departures?

John Buck, Lyle Overbay and yes, Vernon Wells will all be wearing something other then a Blue Jays uniform this season.  Just to put it into perspective, that is 71 home runs, 221 rbi and whole whack of veteran leadership gone overnight.  In their place?  Rajai Davis, JP Arencibia and Juan Rivera who totalled 22 home runs and 106 rbi last season.  Now before you go get your nuts in a knot, let's break this down a second.  Arencibia played only 11 games in the big leagues last year and Rajai Davis is a leadoff hitter who stole 50 bases last year, so the style of play and youth factor are slightly different.  Nevertheless, is a team that relied almost exclusively on the long ball going to be able to contend without three major power sources?

The easy answer to that would be no, they are not strong enough anymore.  But that wouldn't leave room for much optimism not would it?  The Jays will have a slightly different approach in 2011, especially with the likes of Davis and Yunel Escobar at the top of their lineup.  The model Tampa Bay has made over the past few years justifies the argument that speed and taking the extra base is crucial to winning ball games at this level.  Now, don't get me wrong, the Jays still have the reigning home run champ Jose Bautista, fresh off signing his new 5 year 65 million dollar contract.  It looks as though Bautista will now be moved back to right field, where he is most comfortable, to start the season rather than third base.  This leaves Edwin Encarnacion to patrol third base and relegates Juan Rivera to the DH position.  As well, both Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are coming off frustrating 2010 seasons where they saw their offensive production take a hit.  Look for both Hill and Lind to fill some of the void left by the departures of Buck, Overbay and Wells as they should both have bounce back seasons. 

Finally, with the top and middle of the linuep rounding into form, the big questions still remain in the bottom half.  Is Travis Snider finally ready to be a mainstay at the big league level and provide the left-handed power and consistency needed to protect Hill and Lind?  Is JP Arencibia ready to fill the void left by John Buck and chip in offensively while handling a young pitching staff?  I think Arencibia and Snider will be vital to the Jays success this year if both are able make positive strides to becoming legitimate big league ballplayers. 


The Blue Jays 2011 season is filled with plenty of optimism because of a youth movement that is beginning to turn the corner.  Coming off an impressive 85 win season in 2010, Jays fans have every reason to be pumped for 2011.  The Skydome - er Rogers Center - is sold out for Friday's opener against Minnesota which is a good sign as this city needs a team to get excited about.  The boys of summer have officially returned, let's welcome them back in style Toronto and look forward to a great summer of baseball.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Bracket Busters Galore, We Now Have A Final Four

A Ram, Bulldog, Husky and Wildcat are all that remain to challenge for this years National Championship.  It's been quite a ride since the selection committee gave us our field of 68 way back on March 13.  I look at my own bracket now without much pride or satisfaction as it resembles my high school math tests with all the red x's.  Regardless, the Final Four is now set and I can take solace in the fact that there is no way anyone else's bracket contained Kentucky, UCONN, VCU and Butler as the cream of the crop in college basketball (I mean at least I got UCONN right, Obama went 0 for 4).  Here's a look at how each one of these darlings made it to the ball and the Cinderella nature surrounding this entire Final Four.

UCONN Huskies

Alright, if you don't know by now the name Kemba Walker then this article really has no bearing in your life whatsoever (but I still thank you for reading it).  Walker has cemented himself as one of the big game threats in all college basketball, providing incredible leadership on a young Husky team and leading the way on the court in every facet of the game.  When this guy touches the ball, good things seem to happen for UCONN.  So it should come as no surprise then that the Huskies have rattled off 9 straight wins since the Big East tournament started and are now 2 wins away from college basketball supremacy.  What people forget is that this is a team that lost 7 of 11 games between January 29 and March 5 and were deemed by many as an afterthought in a crowded and talented Big East.  Enter Kemba.  Walker has taken this team on his back and with the coming of age of freshman Jeremy Lamb the duo recently disposed of a very talented San Diego St team and an Arizona team that blew out Duke two nights earlier.  Impressed yet?  I think in most years UCONN, even being a number 3 seed, may be seen as somewhat of a Cinderella story or a team of destiny.  Unfortunately, with this field of 4 teams UCONN becomes a favourite to cut down the nets next Monday.  I became a believer when Walker broke Pittsburgh's heart in the Big East tournament and I'd have to assume there aren't many people who aren't on the Kemba train now.  Can the Huskies finish off this magical run?  Time will tell I guess.

Kentucky Wildcats

If there is one other name I need to mention besides Kemba Walker, it has to be Brandon Knight.  This freshman is proving to be the real deal on the biggest stage in college basketball.  Knight is beginning to garner the reputation of a being clutch player, a guy you want to have the ball in his hands with the game on the line.  His teammates call it "Knight Time", as Knight ended Ohio St's season in dramatic fashion on Friday with his running jumper at the end of the game.  He then poured in 22 points against North Carolina to knock off the Tar Heels and help Kentucky advance to the Final Four.  The Wildcats were able to hold down two of the top scoring teams in the country to 60 and 69 points respectively.  With the secondary scoring from freshman Terrence Jones the Wildcats are a young and enthusiastic bunch playing with a purpose.  The biggest surprise coming out of Kentucky would have to be senior Josh Harrellson who put the clamps on Jared Sullinger in the game against Ohio St.  Harrellson played all of 82 minutes last year for Kentucky, but has proven to be a key factor in the Wildcats March run.  John Calipari has this team firing on all cylinders at the right time of the year and Kentucky looks primed and ready to fight for a National Championship.

Butler Bulldogs

These guys again?  Here is a lesson to all mid-major schools in the country; the impossible is possible.  The Butler Bulldogs have returned to the Final Four just 1 year after losing to Duke in the championship game last year.  A school with less then 5000 enrolled students, who came in ranked as an 8 seed, has proceeded to knock off Old Dominion, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Florida, and is now rewarded by having to play an 11 seed in the Final Four.  After losing their best player in Gordon Hayward last year to the Utah Jazz, most people felt like Butler would struggle to regain the Cinderella story they provided throughout last years tournament.  Well, think again.  Brad Stevens is pushing all the right buttons and senior Matt Howard alongside junior Shelvin Mack are proving why experience at the big dance is invaluable.  The Bulldogs smothered a solid Wisconsin team before showing their true grit and grinding out a 74 - 71 overtime win against number 2 ranked Florida.  The Bulldogs epitomize the term composed as they've won 2 games on last second shots and a third in overtime.  This team may just have enough to equal the 1985 Villanova Wildcats and the 1980 UCLA Bruins as the only 8 seeds ever to make the National Championship game.  All they have to do is beat the true Cinderella story of the 2011 tournament, the VCU Rams.

VCU Rams

Ok, so here is how this is going to work, I'm not going to tell you about how Jay Bilas embarrassed himself on national television by berating the selection committee for even putting the Rams in the field.  I'm not going to tell you how there is no way a team from the Colonial Athletic Association is able to beat powerhouses from the Big 12, Big 10, Big East, Pac-10 and ACC in consecutive games.  All I want you to know is that the Virginia Commonwealth Rams are 1 win away from becoming the lowest seed in NCAA history to reach the National Championship game.  If anyone thought this team had somehow fluked their way into the elite 8 with smoke and mirrors, they were sorely mistaken.  One only needed to watch the suffocating defense, half court pressure and unconscious outside shooting display the Rams put on against arguably the best team in the nation in Kansas to understand that the Rams have just as much a shot at college hoops glory as Butler, UCONN or Kentucky.  Shaka Smart is quietly becoming the most talked about coach in college basketball as his preparation and intensity have fuelled this Rams train that seems headed for a historical finish.  The play of senior guard Joey Rodriguez has been phenomenal and the inside-outside presence of Jamie Skeen and Bradford Burgess has allowed VCU to frustrate opponents on the defensive end and embarrass them on the offensive end.  I don't know about anyone else, but this is one bandwagon I've jumped all over.  Let's see if history can be made on Saturday when VCU and Butler clash.


Well, there it is, a Final Four for the books.  A headlining matchup featuring two of the best players in the country in Knight and Walker, and a battle of Cinderella's looking for their own slipper to dance with at the ball.  This tournament has been nothing short of fantastic and I expect this weekend to deliver 2 more phenomenal games.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Raps Headed for High Draft Pick - Great?

As the NBA regular season will soon come mercifully to a close for the Raptors, I can't help but already look toward the draft.  With March Madness in full force it's only natural to fantasize about some of these college superstars suiting up next year in Toronto.  Questions about what's needed and who is the best player available start slowly creeping up as draft day draws closer.  But what should fans expect out of Toronto even with the prospects of getting a top 5 draft pick?  If recent history is any indication, don't expect too much sports fans.

Now I don't want Raptor fans up in arms with me already, just hear me out and make the judgment for yourself when I'm done.  The Raptors haven't been a serious contender since Vince Carter and Allen Iverson went toe-to-toe in 2001.  Just to be clear the Raps didn't draft Vince either, we decided on Antawn Jamison one pick ahead of Vince knowing full well Jamison wanted no part in Toronto.  Anyway, I want to look at the last decade and how the Raptor front office has conducted themselves on draft day. 

The list is a magnificent one put together over the past 10 drafts, but I'm not going to discuss gems like Michael Bradley or Kareem Rush in '01 and '02 because I think drafting a legitimate franchise player in Chris Bosh more then made up for it in 2003 (even though we passed on Dwyane Wade).  But the key to building any solid NBA franchise is having more then one shrewd draft pick within a span of 3 years (I don't want any Knicks or Heat comments here).  We need look no further then 2004 when Raptor management dropped Rafael Araujo on our doorstep.  For those of you who don't know Rafa, it's ok, no one really does because he was a plug.  Just to be sure this pick impaired the Raptor franchise even more, it was sandwiched between Luoul Deng and Andre Igoudala.  So needless to say '04 was a red letter draft year for Raptor fans.

The following draft year brought with it some real promise as the Raptors held 2 picks in the top 16 and fans had high hopes for bringing someone alongside Chris Bosh.  The front office parlayed those 2 picks into Charlie Villanueva and Joey Graham who combined didn't make 1 impact NBA player.  Villanueva showed a spark but I think he frightened fans (if you've seen him you know what I mean) more then he impressed them.  As for Graham, I think him and Rafa now own a convenience store somewhere in southern Ontario.  That draft class saw the Raps pass on players like Channing Frye, Andrew Bynum and David Lee.  Back-to-back years where the Raptors scouting team went on vacation just prior to the draft.

Speaking of vacation, one of them must have been vacationing near Italy because the 2006 draft brought in Andrea Bargnani.  The unfortunate part in all this was the Raps finally got their number 1 overall pick; it turned out to be Bargnani.  Don't get me wrong this guy is turning into one of the better players in the game, but it was a weaker draft class and his evolution was slower then hoped as it took him a couple years before he was able to look at the rim without getting scared.  The struggles in that time period essentially cost the Raptors Chris Bosh as he jumped ship for Miami this past offseason.  Add on the fact that they had no 1st round pick in '07 and they drafted Roy Hibbert, which they immediately traded for Jermaine O'Neal in '08, and it's no wonder their competitive meter has been on low for years.

The jury is still out on DeMar DeRozan, but he looks like he is rounding into a solid NBA player with a chance to be an impact player.  Ed Davis, last years first round pick, hasn't got the minutes this year on a bad Raptor team which puts into doubt the plan surrounding Davis.  Why bother sitting a young kid on a bad team, play him and find out what he is capable of.  This group of Raptors isn't instilling a great amount of confidence in Toronto fans as the blueprint seems hard to read. 

I reiterate my point about having 2 or 3 impact drafts in a short span in order to build a strong NBA team.  You need look no further then maybe the NBA's most consistent team in the last 15 years and one of the NBA's best young teams now: the San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls.  The Spurs drafted Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker in 3 drafts between 1997 and 2001.  The Bulls drafted Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson in 3 back-to-back drafts between 2007 and 2009.  The Spurs have been perennial championship contenders for over a decade, while the Bulls look to be making a similar model.  If you think all these players must have been high picks, think again.  Parker went 28th overall in 2001 and Ginobli was one of the last players drafted at 57th in the 2nd round in 1999.

I am somewhat excited this year as the Raptors are no doubt headed for a high draft pick because this draft class looks very strong.  However, our track record speaks for itself, and it doesn't speak very highly.  Colangelo needs a strong showing this year to peak the interest of Toronto fans or he may be in for another long and arduous year in 2011-2012.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Is It Too Late To Be-Leaf?

It's late March and as I look out the window I see snow everywhere, go figure.  The baseball season starts in just over a week and I'm still forced to drive my car through sleet, snow and whatever else winter sees fit to throw into the mix.  But hey, it's normal for us to get a little snow in March; we do live in Canada right?  The fact that my thought process immediately jumps to the boys of summer in late March shows you just how deprived Leaf nation is of meaningful games at this time of year.  We have come to expect that by mid-March the dreams of a championship coming to Toronto will ultimately rest with the Blue Jays once again, or dare I say the Argos?  Sad isn't it?

Not since Jeremy Roenick broke the hearts of Leaf fans in '04 have the playoffs been an option in Toronto.  However, there seems to be an odd buzz around Leaf nation in the past month.  This band of young, enthusiastic and hungry kids have taken a workmanlike attitude to the end of this season and given Leaf fans a small taste of meaningful hockey in March once again.  Granted, the likelihood of playoff hockey in Toronto this season seems faint at best, but the experience these kids are gaining in the process may prove to be invaluable.  Maybe Burke really did have some idea what he was doing?

Last night's game in Minnesota is a prime example of what I am talking about.  A Wild team in a tailspin and a Leaf team desperate for points, it's the perfect game for a Leaf letdown.  So after taking a 1 - 0 lead early in the first, John Madden slid a puck between Reimer's pads on a breakaway to tie the score.  Two minutes later Chuck Kobasew beat Reimer on yet another shorthanded breakaway to take a 2 - 1 lead and completely deflated the Leafs.  A late charge meant nothing and the Leafs fell 4 - 3 as their playoff hopes dwindled to almost nothing.  This is what happened right?  Well if you have to ask then you weren't watching were you.  In reality, James  Reimer has done what he has been doing for nearly two months, give the Leafs hope.  He stonewalled Madden and Kobasew, later making two more saves on breakaways, and the Leafs came away with a 3 - 0 shutout of the Wild.  The win was monumental as both Carolina and Buffalo came away with wins as well.

'Optimus Reim', as he has been referred to, has cemented the back end of a Leaf franchise that has been yearning for a tender since the departure of Eddie Belfour.  At 16 - 7 - 4, Reimer looks like he might be the real deal.  The kid has posted a 2.49 GAA and a .925 save percentage in the process.  What might be even more impressive is the demeanor in which he conducts himself; calm, cool and collected.  The key to being an NHL goaltender isn't how you play when you win, but how you're able to play after you lose. 

Playoffs or not, I think we can look back at a March 16th game in Carolina as a defining moment in Reimer's young career.  With the media talking about Reimer's heavy workload and if he would be able to continue at this pace, Reimer had his worst game as a Leaf.  Coming off a thrilling win against Buffalo, no one showed up two nights later at home to Tampa Bay and Reimer took the brunt of it.  He was pulled after 5 goals and no sooner had he sat on the bench then there was chatter about him buckling under the pressure.  Two nights later he put that chatter to bed, emphatically.  Reimer waltzed into a hostile environment in Carolina and stopped 36 of 37 shots to lead the Leafs to a 3 - 1 victory over the Hurricanes, the team directly in  front of them in the standings.  In fact, since that loss to the Lightning, Reimer has won three straight giving up only 3 goals in the process and posting his third shutout of his career in the process. 

With the confidence in their backstop and a young team with seemingly nothing to lose, the Leafs look almost legitimate.  Posting  a 14 -6 -5 record since they limped into February has brought the blue and white 5 points away from being in a playoff spot with 8 games remaining.  That seems like a stretch, but as I said before these late season games are crucial to the development of this team.  Leaf nation can take solace in the fact that for the first time in recent memory, the progression seems to be a positive one.  I don't know about anyone else, but I'm starting to Be-Leaf again!

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Four Days of Madness Sets Up 16 Sweethearts

We saw 64 teams suit up on Thursday with the hopes and dreams of cutting down the nets on April 4th on the line.  After four chaotic days and two rounds completed, the field has been narrowed to 16 teams vying for one National Championship.  So far March Madness 2011 has lived up to all the expectations fans so desperately crave.  Brackets have been busted, buzzers have been beaten and Cinderella's slipper is still lying in wait for its rightful owner.  Let's look at some of the burning topics from a fantastic weekend of college hoops.

The Giants come and the Giants go...

Every fan loves to see the true underdog wreak havoc on the big bad favorite (unless of course your bracket looks anything like Charles Barkley's does now because of it).  In any case, this past weekend provided a number of giant killers who broke the hearts of teams with the intention of playing basketball in April.  The likes of Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Purdue, just to name a few, have had their tournament dreams shattered early and are licking their wounds on their way back home. 

This years Sweet 16 is a tale of two sides of the bracket.  I'm serious, take a look at your bracket and tell me what you see.  The left side, with the exception of #11 seeded Marquette sneaking in, looks pretty much as it should with a seed no higher than Arizona at 5.  Now, look to your right side, if anyone out there is ready to convince me that you had that set of 8 teams lined up in your sweet 16 I bow down to your vast knowledge, expertise and lack of conscience because you are lying to me through your teeth. 

We saw a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 seed all fall to a lower seed in the Southwest and Southeast regions.  Kansas, as I write this article, is sending thank you memos to Purdue, Notre Dame, Louisville, Vanderbilt and Georgetown for all laying eggs this weekend.  This sets Kansas up with a chance to make the final four by beating a seed no higher then 8.  Not to mention that top seeded Pittsburgh fell by the wayside as well which leaves Kansas in a position to not see another 1 seed until the National Championship game.  Dear Kansas, if you screw this one up I would advise you not to return home too soon.

Who's got the slipper?

Now, with all these upsets occuring there was one which really stood out to me.  We all knew Butler was a veteran laden team with a bunch of sharp shooters and a hard nosed defense, so their upset of Pittsburgh came as no huge shock.  Richmond has the reputation of being a giant killer so when they knocked off Vandy I don't think anyone was in utter disbelief.  Also, if anyone saw the Morehead St - Louisville game they could understand that Preston Knowles' injury and Peyton Siva's foul trouble led directly to that upset.  But can someone explain to me how the VCU Rams are playing in the Sweet 16 right now? 

The Rams were a team that analysts were up in arms about when they received an at-large bid and were completely counted out of their play-in game against USC much less any further games.  If we exclude Ohio St and Duke, VCU has the highest point differential of any team in the tournament at 36.  They have two straight 18 point wins, one of which came against a powerhouse Purdue team playing a borderline home game in Chicago.  The Rams shot 56% from the field against Purdue and have hit 20 three balls in two games in the tourney so far.  They get a stiff test this weekend as Florida St boasts one of the best defenses in college basketball, but VCU looks like a team playing with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove to the world which is a bad combination if you are a Florida St fan.

Unbeatable?

March Madness is such a renowned tournament because of its unpredictability, shocking moments and heart pumping drama.  We need to remember that these are just kids playing at a national level, mistakes will happen when the pressure mounts.  Case and point, the best (or worst depending on how you look at it) ending to a game on the weekend was arguably the Pittsburgh - Butler game where we saw a basket, a foul, a missed free throw, another foul and a game winning free throw all in the span of 2.5 seconds.  How Pitt coach Jamie Dixon even allowed Nasir Robinson to be in that position is beyond me, but the fact is college kids make mistakes and that is why this tournament is so much fun to watch.

However, going into the sweet 16, is it not starting to look to anyone else like the Ohio St Buckeyes are like men among boys?  Their pummelling of Texas-San Antonio was expected, but their utter dismantling of a very good George Mason team was maybe the most impressive win of the weekend.  If anyone else watched that game, it was 11-2 George Mason about 4 minutes into the game when Ohio St awoke from some narcoleptic slumber to put up 98 points and embarrass the Patriots by 32.  The Buckeye's shot 61% from the field and a whopping 61% from beyond the arc, draining 16 three balls in the process.  Combine that with the 12 three's they hit in their first game and Ohio St has been unconscious from beyond the arc.  I guess it is safe to say that the pre-tournament favorite is living up to its billing so far.

If the Buckeye's fall, who wins it all?

Assuming Ohio St does not continue it's dominance over just about everyone that steps on the court with them, who has the inside track at carving their name into college hoops history as the 2011 National Champion?  Well, if you have been reading this article I think you can revert back to my earlier breakdown of the southwest bracket and figure out why Kansas should be next in line.  Arguably the second best team in the nation playing against competition far beneath them, as long as they keep their focus the Jayhawks should throw it into cruise control until at least the final four. 

The Southeast is an interesting bracket, but I am officially back on the Jimmer bandwagon after back-to-back 30 plus point performances.  The most exciting player in my opinion in college basketball, Jimmer Fredette has decided that with or without Brandon Davies, BYU will not go quietly into the night.  Anytime this guy is on the floor BYU has a chance to beat any team in the nation, and until someone figures out a way to guard him I would not be surprised to see Kansas and Jimmer meet in the final four.

The only two other teams I see with a legitimate shot at winning this tournament both come out of the West bracket.  Duke and UCONN look like they are headed for what I think will be the best elite 8 game and the right to most likely play Ohio St in the final four.  With the return of Kyrie Irving from injury, Duke has to be considered even more of a threat alongside Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler.  The Blue Devils, however, will have to deal with possible number 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft Derrick Williams and the Arizona Wildcats in order to accomplish this.  UCONN, meanwhile, is riding the Kemba train right through March.  Down 10 points early in the game to Cinncy, Kemba took the Huskies on his back and scored 8 straight while barking out orders on the defensive end to lead the Huskies to an 11 point victory.  He has looked like a man on a mission since the beginning of the Big East tournament and slowing him down seems like a tall order.


Well, the first four days brought us all the madness we could handle.  All we can do is hope the next four will continue the trend.  God I love March Madness.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

The Madness Begins - 2011 Tourney Favourites and Sleepers

 
Twas the night before St. Patty’s day, when excitement started growing
The field of 64 was almost set, March Madness would soon be showing.
Brackets have been filled out with all the info one could muster,
God please don’t let there be an unknown bracket buster.

Ok, so I’m not much of a poet.  But you have to love my enthusiasm, don’t you?  Regardless, the Madness is officially upon us ladies and gentleman.  With UNC-Asheville and Clemson taking care of business last night, the field of 64 has but two more spots to be filled.  The spotlight is set for the greatest tournament in sports to commence in less than 24 hours. 

The NCAA tournament is about sleepers and favourites.  The favourites are clearly the easier to spot, while every fan thinks they have found this year’s dark horse.  So I’ll weigh in with my two sense and break down this years clear cut favourites as well as several sleepers to keep your eye on. 

We’ll start with the giants of the tourney, the #1 seeds, as there is a reason Ohio St, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh have claimed the top seed in each bracket. 

Ohio St. Buckeyes

Why they can win:  The Buckeyes enter the 2011 tourney as the number 1 overall seed and it seems every bettors pick for the National Championship.  With their body of work you really can’t blame anyone for this choice as at one point they were chasing down the immortal ’75-’76 Indiana Hoosier team for college basketball perfection.  The 24-0 start created quite the buzz around the Buckeyes and only tough road losses in Wisconsin and Purdue kept that from happening.   Freshman Jared Sullinger has looked every bit as dominant as expected averaging better than 17 points and 10 boards per game while leading Ohio St to the Big Ten Championship.  Couple Sullinger’s inside presence with Senior Jon Diebler shooting 50% from beyond the arc and the inside-outside game for the Buckeyes can be overwhelming.  Furthermore, the Buckeye’s discipline is unmatched as they commit the least amount of fouls of any team in the tournament which keeps their best players on the floor and creates a free throw disparity that could lead them to a National Championship.

Why they can’t win:  The road to a National Championship is a long and arduous journey, one that requires a lot of skill, a bit of luck and a complete team effort.  The fact that the Buckeye’s rely so heavily on 5 guys could prove detrimental to a team looking for a deep run in the final four.  Ohio St’s 6th and 7th options, Deshaun Thompson and Dallas Lauderdale play only 14 and 16 minutes respectively, while no one else reaches 9 minutes a game.  Can the Buckeyes matchup effectively and consistently with deeper teams like Kansas, who boasts 10 players playing double digit minutes, or North Carolina who has 9 different players with 14 minutes or more a game.  The fact that the Buckeye’s are also an average rebounding team gives reason for worry.  Sullinger is the only Buckeye averaging more then 4.1 rebounds per game.  Given some of the superior rebounding in their own region, North Carolina at number 1 in the country and Kentucky at 31, the Buckeyes have reason to worry.  If Sullinger gets into foul trouble early and Ohio St hits a cold spell from outside, the Buckeyes chances for a National Championship will seriously diminish.

Kansas Jayhawks

Why they can win:  The Kansas Jayhawks, Big 12 powerhouse and second #1 seed in the country.  This team knows how to fill the nets early and fill them often.  The Jayhawks, led by the Morris twins and senior guard Brady Morningstar rank in the top 5 in the country in shooting, assists and points per game.  This team deserved every bit of the number 1 seed they were given and besides the hiccup at home to conference rival Texas and on the road to long time rival Kansas St, the Jayhawks were all but perfect in there assault of the Big 12 Crown.  The fact that this team runs 10 different players in double digit minutes proves how deep and talented they are and allows them to wear down their opponents.  There is no time to sleep on Kansas because they can turn a small lead into a large blowout before half, with or without their starters on the floor. 

Why they can’t win:  How can a team that is fairly stingy defensively, among the best in the country offensively, can rebound the ball with the best of them and is one of the deepest teams in all college lose?  Focus.  Kansas may have the two worst losses of any number 1 seed in the tourney this year (maybe except for Duke’s loss to St John at Madison Square Garden).  Their complete meltdown at home to Texas broke a 69 game home winning streak where Kansas blew a 15 point lead in the 2nd half and ended up getting embarrassed by 11 points on their home floor.  Three weeks later the Jayhawks walked into Kansas St
and were blown out by the Wildcats in a game where Kansas never showed up.  Those kind of hiccups don’t cut it in the tourney where every game is played like it’s your last.  Also, Kansas has been less than stellar from the free throw line which down the stretch against good teams could become a problem.  Look for Kansas’ intensity and focus to stay high or the Jayhawks won’t be cutting down any nets in April.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Why they can win:  So you want to play in the Big East eh?  This conference has dominated college basketball all year and broke a record by having a whopping 11 teams in this years NCAA tournament.  Pittsburgh, our third number 1 seed, topped the Big East with a 15-3 record and probably would have claimed the Big East title if it were not for Kemba Walker and the ludicrous 5 games in 5 days show that UCONN put on.  Pitt features a fantastic inside-outside game with Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wannamaker leading the way and Gary McGhee and Nasir Robinson creating space down low.  With McGhee and Robinson inside Pitt is ranked 8th in the country in rebounding and is top 5 in the tourney on the offensive glass.  The Panthers, minus an early season loss to Tennessee, lost all 4 of their other games by a combined 11 points.  What that tells you is they are in every game and with their physical style it makes it tough to compete with them for 40 minutes. 

Why they can’t win:  Well I think we need to look no further then UCONN’s display in the Big East tournament to figure out the game plan against Pitt.  Run, run, run, run and rebound the ball.  Easier said then done I guess eh?  Despite shooting 55% against the Huskies, Pitt lost on a buzzer beater by Kemba Walker.  The fact that Walker was even in that position was phenomenal to me as I watched this game.  Pitt was dominant early, but once McGhee ran into foul trouble and UCONN was able to get out in transition and run, the kinks in the armour began to show.  Pitt wants to play a physical, half-court game, where they can beat you up and wear you down.  Teams that are good in transition and can match Pitt on the boards have a chance to create space and exploit the Panthers.  Look for Pittsburgh to slow the game down because in a track meet this team seems like they may be a leg slower then some. 

Duke Blue Devils

Why they can win: The Blue Devils are back and looking to be the first team to win back-to-back National Titles since Florida in ‘06-’07.  Battle tested, Duke returns seniors Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, both integral parts of their championship team last year.  This team loves to shoot the ball.  Shooting around 47% for the year and 38% from beyond the arc, Duke is always a threat to put up big numbers offensively.  They rebound well, they pass well, they don’t turn the ball over, they function as a unit well, oh and they have one of the greatest coaches of all time in Mike Krzyzewski.  On top of all that, Duke is money from the free throw line.  Anyone who has ever watched this tournament can figure out how important free throw shooting is and Duke does it very well.  This team knows what it takes to win and they execute that game plan on a regular basis.  

Why they can’t win:  Kyrie Irving?  The analysts and most fans had this back-to-back National Championship year all but sewn up for Duke at the beginning of the year.  I mean my God, they have three guys averaging 17 points or better and Seth Curry is coming off your bench.  Need I say more?  Then somebody stomped, forgive me if you see an analogy here, all over their hopes and dreams.  Kyrie Irving, the freshman phenom, hurt his toe (yes I said his toe) and has been out since December.  These guys got a 1 seed without him, imagine what they would be like with him.  There are rumblings throughout college hoops that Irving may be seen sometime throughout this tourney, but I’m not holding my breath.  I watched North Carolina beat them once (should have been twice) and the debacle to St Johns.  I also watched the eggs they laid in Florida St and Virginia Tech because they hit a cold patch from outside.  If this team can’t shoot with precision, they aren’t beating a great team.  Without Irving, Duke seems to be just that much short of defending their National Title.


March Madness is really about thrills, buzzer beaters and upsets which provide these heart stopping moments that live on forever in college basketball lore (see George Mason’s ascent to the elite eight in 2006 and their overtime win over then number 1 UCONN).  So after looking at the elite class of college basketball, let’s look at four teams that could have a chance at making some noise from lower down on the totem pole. 

Belmont Bruins (#13 seed)

Yes, the great and powerful Bruins from Belmont, seems like an oxymoron in and of itself, I realize that.  However, this is the point in picking a sleeper, a team that is a much lower seed able to compete with its more talented adversary.  The Belmont Bruins look to be in a perfect position for this theme. 

The Bruins come into the tourney as 1 of only 7 teams to win 30 or more games this year.  Granted that the competition they face may not be up to par with some schedules, but winning is winning, and these guys can win basketball games.  The Bruins come in ranked 11th nationally in scoring with 80 plus points per game as well as 1st in three pointers made per game, going up against an offensively challenged Wisconsin team (If anyone saw that Penn St – Wisconsin game it nearly made me sick).  Belmont has racked up 12 straight wins and is entering the tourney with more confidence then ever after winning the Atlantic Sun Conference almost effortlessly.  Confidence is something that cannot be taught.  Wisconsin is coming in after getting blown out by
Ohio St and beaten 36-33 by Penn St.  That will not cut it against Belmont as good shooters will find a way to score.

Neither team rebounds the ball incredibly well, but the Bruins do have the edge which should allow them ever more room for scoring.  If they can keep Wisconsin off the line, where the Badgers are deadly, and can ride their confidence and their shooting, then Belmont has a chance to pull the upset.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies (#13 seed)

What do West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Tennessee, Michigan, and Ohio St all have in common?  Oakland played them in their non-conference schedule.  That schedule is ranked as the toughest non-conference schedule of any team in the tournament, so if anyone is thinking the Golden Grizzlies haven’t played anyone this year they would be wrong.  That also included a win at Tennessee, a 1 point loss to Michigan St and a game they were winning at Illinois at half. 

Now that we have determined their credibility for being here, how do they have a chance to beat Texas?  Oakland is going to pour in the points for 40 straight minutes, that’s how.  They score the most points of any team in the tournament at more than 85 per game.  They are  2nd nationally behind only Kansas in field goal percentage and shoot almost 8% better than Texas from the free throw line.  The Longhorns are going to get a steady dose of 6’11 Keith Benson who averages 18 points and 10 plus boards a game.  That ability to rebound the ball may end up being an x-factor in this game as Texas has no one bigger than 6’8.  The Longhorns come in 5th in the country on the glass, but with a guy like Benson down low rebounds become hard to come by. 

This game looks like it’s going to be a good old fashioned shootout as Oakland also gives up the most points of any team in the tournament.  If Benson is able to dominate the glass and Oakland keeps shooting at that percentage, we may see a quick Texas exit.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (#11 seed)

I know it’s tough to call the Zags a sleeper because we consistently see them in the tourney and making some noise.  However, at an 11 seed I am still giving them this title, sue me.  There resume speaks for itself, they beat Xavier and Marquette in non-conference play as well as had a 4 point loss in Notre Dame and a 3 point loss to San Diego St.  Throw in beating St Mary’s twice and winning the WCC and I think it’s safe to say the Zags belong.

This matchup seems to be a weird one for me as I look at the numbers and want to flip the seeds around.  The Bulldogs score more, give up less, rebound better, assist better, shoot the three at a higher percentage and shoot overall at a higher percentage.  To be honest the free throws are fairly close as well so we won’t give St Johns full credit there either.  However, people are still setting St Johns up for a long and deep tournament run, why?  Outside of Madison Square Gardens the Red Storm have looked fairly ordinary.  Even in the Gardens it took a botched last second call to seal a win against an average Rutgers team.  Compound this with the fact that they lost leading rebounder DJ Kennedy for the season and Gonzaga seems to have all the makings of pulling the upset here.

The Zags move the ball around well and are comfortable with multiple scoring options.  If they are able to contain Dwight Hardy and St Johns can’t channel Madison Square then I like the Zags to come away with a victory here.  If they are able to do that they probably have BYU waiting second round and without Brandon Davies that team is not nearly as efficient.  Gonzaga in the Sweet 16?

Old Dominion Monarchs (#9 seed)

This is our highest seeded sleeper as Old Dominion comes in as a 9 seed.  The reason I put them in is because I believe they matchup better with their inevitable second round opponent, Pittsburgh.  Wins against George Mason, Clemson and Xavier highlighted a decent non-conference schedule and the monarchs finished off the Colonial with a win over VCU furthering their tournament resume.

The Monarchs stingy defense and superior rebounding allow them to be in just about every game they play.  They impress no one with their offensive abilities but will make other teams lives miserable on the defensive end.  Senior Frank Hassel leads the way averaging 15 points and almost 10 boards a game and is the poster boy for Old Dominion basketball, down and dirty.  The Butler game could get ugly if Butler is unable to shoot the 3 with consistency because Butler’s interior defense is among the worst in the country.  Also, Butler is much more inferior on the glass and especially on the offensive glass getting outrebounded by an average of 5 per game on the offensive glass.

Old Dominion relies on rebounding and defense to win; Butler relies on shooting the 3 to win.  Maybe the two most differing styles in the tourney coming together as 8 and 9 seeds.  If Butler isn’t shooting the ball well, look for Old Dominion to dominate the glass and the scoreboard which would setup a very intriguing matchup between Pittsburgh featuring two physical and highly proficient rebounding teams.


Well, there you have it, 4 giants and 4 potential giant killers.  The Madness starts tomorrow everyone; I hope you’re ready for it.