Less than 24 hours now until the first pitch is thrown in the 2011 MLB season. As I said in my blog yesterday, every team comes in tied for first with a clean slate and plenty of room for optimism. But if we could all be completely realistic here, cockeyed optimism doesn't win ball games and neither does a great attitude. Mind you, these are things every good ball team encompasses, but without the actual pieces of the puzzle the picture on the box doesn't help you build the damn thing now does it. So here's a breakdown of what to expect in the American League this season.
American League East
Ah the great and powerful AL East. Maybe the greatest running division in sports over the past decade or so. The East has won 7 of the past 15 World Series and had a team play in 10 of those 15, that's a 66% chance that someone from the AL East will at least be seen in the October classic. It was the only division in baseball last year to boast 4 different teams with a .500 record or better and continues to dominate headlines with big market teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. So coming into 2011, there is no great surprise that once again the AL East is seen as a powerhouse division.
It is funny, however, that in such a powerful division one team can be put head and shoulders above the others. Painfully saying this as a die hard Blue Jays fan, but the aforementioned Boston Red Sox have moulded themselves into the class of baseball in 2011. With no disrespect to the Halladay led Phillies, this Red Sox team, barring major injury, looks unstoppable. Signing the most coveted free agent player last year in Carl Crawford and trading for an MVP candidate in Adrian Gonzalez, without losing much I might add, has created a 'monster' (pardon the pun) in Fenway this year. Add to that a rotation headed up by John Lester, Josh Beckett and John Lackey, a bullpen boasting 3 legitimate closing options in Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks, and the Red Sox just might regain their '07 and '04 World Series form. Their main source of competition seems to be coming from an aging Yankee team with a weaker starting rotation, a rising Jays team that doesn't look like they are quite there yet and a Rays team which will be weakened by significant offseason departures in their starting rotation and bullpen.
Pick: Boston Red Sox
Sleeper: Boston Red Sox (that's how good they are)
American League Central
The central may be the most competitive division in the American League, even if it isn't the strongest. The race for the central crown may once again come down to the last day of the season, or dare we say, another one game playoff! The Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers all come into opening day with aspirations of October baseball, and each is being a realist when they do so (sorry Cleveland and Kansas City, maybe next year). But you couldn't get three more different teams in the mix.
The Twins have been the model of consistency in the central for a decade now, posting a record above .500 in 9 of those 10 seasons and winning the central 6 times. It is impossible to talk about winning the central without at least giving the Twins their due. But this season seems riddled with questions and concerns as the Twinkies emerge from spring training and head north to Minneapolis. Health becomes a huge issue as key pieces like Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan both are coming off seasons where they played only 81 games combined, as well as Francisco Liriano's arm feels like a constant time bomb just waiting to go off. Will Carl Pavano be able to duplicate his 17 win season of last year after winning only 23 games in the previous 4 seasons? If the Twins can stay healthy and produce this year they have a great chance at the central, but that is asking a lot.
The White Sox and Tigers both made headlining news in the offseason when they went out and picked up Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez. The White Sox possess one of the more formidable middle of the orders in the AL with the likes of Dunn, Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios. Their rotation seems to be coming together as John Danks continues to impress people while Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson and Gavin Floyd come in with high expectations. As well, Hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton looks poised to seize the closers job after the departure of Bobby Jenks.
The Tigers, meanwhile, picked up Victor Martinez in the offseason to give Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez another power bat in the middle of their order. If Austin Jackson continues to turn heads in center field and at the top of the order and Ryan Raburn is able to be a steady force in left then the Tigers bats could be a force. Furthermore, Justin Verlander heads up a younger and talented rotation alongside Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello that can give this team some quality innnings and get this team into the later innings for Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. The Tigers had the 2nd best home record in the AL last year and if they are able to play some quality ball on the road this year they could take the central title.
Pick: Detroit Tigers
Sleeper: Minnesota Twins (they already know how to win, just a question of health and production)
American League West
The Texas Rangers were on the brink of baseball glory last season, then they met Edgar Renteria. The Rangers were the class of the AL West last year winning the division a month before the end of the season. The loss of Cliff Lee is going to prove to be huge and the injury to Tommy Hunter, sidelining him for up to 6 weeks, further questions their starting rotation. We know they can still hit but the void left by Vladdy Guerrero should be felt even with the addition of Adrian Beltre at third. Michael Young isn't happy with his role as DH this year which should cause some added turmoil in Arlington. Look for a slight drop-off in Texas, just enough to push them out of the playoff picture.
Meanwhile old mr. moneyball, Billy Beane, may be putting together another team primed for the playoffs using nickels, dimes and a quarter or two. Beane's A's had the best ERA in the AL last year and there is no reason to think that can't continue. Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden all had ERA's 3.50 or lower last year and are still continuing to develop. The quiet additions of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham may give this team just enough run support to make Beane once again look like a genius. Look for the Athletics to turn some heads this year and come out as the surprise team in the AL West.
Pick: Oakland Athletics
Sleeper: Texas Rangers (not really a sleeper but if Oakland falters the Rangers are clearly the next best)
So that's how I see the American League shaping up this season. Let's be honest though, pre-season predictions are about as useless as David Ortiz's glove, but fun to see nonetheless. As for the Wild Card, if all the division winners go as planned I can see the Rangers and Yankees fighting for the final playoff spot in the AL with the Yankees slightly edging them out. Stay tuned for the National League division breakdowns coming soon.
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