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| Patrick Willis leads a fierce 49ers Defense |
In a league where high octane offenses have begun to take precedent over suffocating defenses, the 49ers are one of the exceptions to the rule. Ranking 2nd in points allowed, 4th in total yards allowed and boasting the leagues best run defense, the Niners hang there hat on the defensive side of the ball game in and game out.
Just to give you an idea of how good these guys were the 49ers didn't give up a rushing touchdown until week 16 against the Seahawks. They held opponents under 20 points 11 times this season and averaged only 10.8 points per game against at home this year.
Only 4 times this season did SF allow a quarterback to reach the 300 yard plateau and they won 3 of those 4 games regardless. There is no doubting the legitimacy of the SF defense, but can they do it against one of the greatest offenses in the history of the National Football League?
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| Brees broke Dan Marino's single season passing record. |
Brees' magical year saw him decimate Dan Marino's single season passing record by week 16 and fell only 4 touchdowns short of Tom Brady's record 50 TD's in a season. Along with a plethora of other single season records that Brees broke, he led the Saints to a 13 - 3 record and is in search for his second Super bowl in 3 years.
Let's go inside the numbers and see what to expect this Saturday when the Saints and 49ers clash.
OFFENSE
Ok, it's no secret that this one's going to the Saints. We'll throw up some numbers here to begin with just to light a quick fire. The Saints outscored SF by almost 11 points per game this season and outgained them by an amazing 157 yards per game. Drew Brees has been unconscious breaking single season marks in passing yards, consecutive 300 yard passing games, 350 yard passing games and pass completions. He began this years playoff run throwing for 466 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions last week in 'just another day at the office' fashion. The key thing to understand here is this passing offense is pretty good.
What most people tend to forget about is the three headed monster in the backfield that ranks the Saints 8th in the league in rushing. Featuring bruising backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory alongside maybe the most explosive all around player in the league right now in Darren Sproles, the Saints possess all the tools to blow any defense out quickly if there not careful. The Saints, however, have had a little more difficulty scoring on the road averaging 27 points per game as opposed to the 41 points per game they average at home. Brees, at times, has looked a little shaky outside especially when the weather becomes inclement and he isn't hidden away inside the friendly confines of the Superdome. Expect SF to be loud and cold this week and we'll see how Brees handles it.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers feature a ground and pound attack that uses ball control as there biggest weapon. Averaging 23.8 point per game, the Niners rely heavily on Frank Gore who rushed for over 1,200 yards this season despite battling injuries later in the year. Former number 1 pick and QB Alex Smith has rounded into a solid young quarterback who hasn't been asked to do to much this season. TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree keep opposing secondary's honest with deep ball abilities and if Gore is able to establish the ground game and the Niners can win the field position battle they are hard to stop. A key for SF is keeping Brees and company off the field. Gore will be an integral part of this game if the Niners have real aspirations of moving on to the NFC Championship game.
Advantage: SAINTS
DEFENSE
So, I would think by now you would be getting the picture here. This is about as big a mismatch as the offensive side of the ball. The Niners rank near the top of the league in just about every major defensive category. The Saints, well they rank near the bottom in just about every major category except for where it counts the most; points against. The Saints, despite having the 30th ranked pass defense and ranking 24th in the NFL in total yardage allowed per game, somehow managed to only allow 21.2 points per game, good enough for 13th in the NFL. The bend but don't break attitude has been instilled by Sean Payton and New Orleans plays the part well.
A lot of those numbers have to do with Brees and company putting opposing teams in such a deep hole that they have to throw the ball all game to try and keep up. It's interesting to note however, that this Saints team had just 9 interceptions all season long ranking them near the bottom of the NFL. The team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago was known for having 'ball hawks' in their secondary exemplified by Tracy Porter's pick 6 off of Peyton Manning late in the 4th quarter to put the Colts away. If New Orleans is to win this game they must win the turnover and field position battle. The Niners were tied for second in the NFL in picks and tied for first in fumble recoveries giving them a major edge in this category. If Brees gets too cold the 49ers defense will surely be waiting with open arms.
Advantage: 49ERS
INTANGIBLES
Here's where things start to get a little interesting. We all know the tale of two worlds coming out of San Francisco and New Orleans. We've discussed at length the high octane Saints offense versus the powerful shutdown defense of the 49ers. What will ultimately swing the game in the direction of one of these two teams and vault them into the NFC Championship game next weekend is the question. The simple answer is weather versus experience.
The New Orleans Saints boast a world class quarterback having a magical season. They return several players from the 2009 Super Bowl team and the team that fell victim to the Seattle Seahawks last year in the Wild Card round. The 49ers, on the other hand, have an abundance of youthful exuberance making its first trip to the post season. The Saints know how to win, plain and simple. The Niners haven't proven they know how to win in January yet. Advantage Saints.
The early look at the weather report shows no sign of inclement weather for Saturday's tilt between the Saints and Niners. However, Drew Brees is noticeably uncomfortable playing outside then he is under a roof. The Niners will look to expose that using the crowd and the elements. If there is any precipitation at all the advantage swings heavily in favor of the 49ers but for now we give the slight nod to San Fran.
In the end, I have to believe the Saints learned a big lesson last year against the Seahawks. Brees and Payton will come into San Francisco with a solid game plan and the three headed monster in the backfield will provide enough support that Brees will be able to throw the ball downfield. While I don't think Brees throws up the type of numbers he did last week, I think the Saints do enough to come out on the right side of the score board in this one.
Prediction: Saints 27 - Niners 20
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