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| Ray Lewis leads an experienced Ravens defense. |
Our final Divisional round matchup pits 2 division winners against each other. The Baltimore Ravens captured the AFC North and were rewarded with a bye last week. The Houston Texans stumbled down the stretch losing there final 3 regular season games but still managed to win the AFC South by a game over Tennessee.
The Texans made there first trip to the post season this year and cruised too an easy 31 - 10 win over the Bengals in Houston last week. Rookie TJ Yates made his first post season appearance as the Texans have been without starting quarterback Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinhart since midseason.
Sunday afternoon is a rematch of week 6 when the Ravens came away with a 29 - 14 win in Baltimore. Schaub was still under center for Houston at that point. Key injuries have been a problem for the Texans this season as wide receiver Andre Johnson also missed several weeks during the season. Johnson played last week and appears to be healthy now but Yates will undoubtedly be the man for Houston the rest of the season.
On the other side of the ball the Ravens have to be excited to see the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts watching from their couches. The Ravens previous four playoff runs have all ended at the hands of either the Steelers or the Colts. Baltimore is the only team in the AFC to own a perfect home record at 8 - 0 which could spell trouble for a young Texans team with a rookie quarterback. Let's take a look at how both teams match up on either side of the ball.
OFFENSE
Offensively these teams are virtual clones of each other with one notable exception: TJ Yates. Yates has done an admirable job stepping in for the Texans going 2 - 3 in 5 starts and winning last weeks Wild Card game against the Bengals. However, Yates is clearly not Matt Schaub. He's thrown for 300 yards only once and has 4 touchdowns to go alongside his 3 interceptions. Yates has the tools to be an NFL QB, but youth has its ups and downs. A healthy Andre Johnson should alleviate some pressure from Yates, though, as the big wide receiver is one of the best in the game.
As I said, these two teams are very similar offensively. Both average 23 points per game, rank mid pack in passing offense and like to run the ball. The Texans especially are a run heavy team with Arian Foster in the backfield. Foster will be expected to carry much of the load for Houston if they expect to score many points against a very talented Ravens defense. As well, Yates will need to take care of the ball because that offense isn't built to come from behind so the turnover game will be crucial for the Texans.
For Baltimore, they have their own ace in the hole in the backfield. Ray Rice is Mr. all purpose as he had over 2,000 all purpose yards including over 1,300 rushing yards and over 700 receiving. The dual threat that Rice poses gives opposing defenses fits in the screen game. Off play action Joe Flacco likes to go downfield to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith when he gets them in one-on-one coverage. The key for Baltimore is to protect Flacco and give him time in the pocket to let things play out downfield. If the O-line can hold off Houston then Rice, Flacco and company should be able to put up some points. That combined with a rookie quarterback in an unfriendly environment could lead to disaster for Houston.
Advantage: Ravens
DEFENSE
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| Cushing and the Texans D will need a big game Sunday. |
With the loss of Schaub, the Texans need the defensive side of the ball more than anything right now. Linebacker and leading tackler Brian Cushing leads a workmanlike Texans defense that has a never stop attitude. They shutdown the Bengals last week after the first quarter and added a pick 6 to their resume when rookie JJ Watt took one back to end the first half.
Cushing will most likely be in charge of spying Ray Rice on Sunday and trying to limit the backs production. Connor Barwin, who led the Texans with 11.5 sacks this season, needs to make life difficult for Joe Flacco and create some turnovers. The Texans may have trouble moving the ball so turnovers and field position will be crucial in this game.
For Baltimore, it's a simple recipe that the Ravens have been using for years now: hit everyone and hit them hard. A bruising defense led by the likes of future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis and sack leader Terrell Suggs with 14 this season, the Ravens take pride in breaking other teams. The Ravens rank 2nd in the NFL in rush defense holding opposing backs to 92 yards a game. This is obviously a key matchup between the Ravens run D and the Texans running game, the winner of which will most likely advance to the Conference Championship next weekend. The Ravens must force TJ Yates to throw the ball Sunday by taking away Arian Foster on the ground. If they are able to do that then the rookie QB is more than likely to make a few mistakes and Safety Ed Reed will be lurking with eyes wide open.
Advantage: Ravens
INTANGIBLES
I don't think it's a major secret that experience and home field advantage are vital to winning football games in January. Both aren't able to worked on in the weight room or game planned for, you either have them or you don't. The simple fact is, the Ravens have them and the Texans don't. Baltimore went 8 - 0 at home this season and held opponents to just under 15 points per game there. TJ Yates has yet to walk into confines as unfriendly as Baltimore will be on Sunday. The rookie QB has looked shaky on the road losing in Indianapolis and needing a last second touchdown to defeat Cincinnati. It won't be any easier in Baltimore.
Speaking of Yates, the second intangible this weekend is experience. Once again, Ravens have a plethora of it including several Super Bowl rings, the Texans have virtually none. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are the faces of an experience and stout defense who knows exactly what it takes to win in January. Joe Flacco is in his 4th season and has a ton of playoff experience in that time. Yates, Foster and company are coming in wide eyed with only a home win over Cincinnati last week to hang their hats on. Newsflash, this isn't going to be like last week. I'd be shocked if the Ravens don't completely smother the Texans offense and while I believe Houston's D will make a game of it, a bunch of kids can't hang with the big boys just yet.
Prediction: Ravens 20 - Texans 10
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